Some thoughts on a post Covid existence… For the near term at least…
Cast your mind back just a few short months… who would have thought when we were celebrating Christmas and welcoming in the New Year that we would be spending Spring in lockdown???
It’s certainly been an unprecedented start to the year, and with the UK lockdown being extended this week, by at least an additional 3 weeks, it’s hardly surprising that we are seeing frustrations coming from people struggling with isolation, missing friends, family and the familiarity of life’s normal routine. While there are a lot of suggestions for how we should be spending lockdown, be it learning a new skill, starting a new hobby, or volunteering to help your local community, for those of us in business this is an anxiety inducing time, full of confusion, concern and worry.
Much has been written about how the world will be forever changed, or not, but the truth is no-one really knows what the post Covid world will look like just yet. But, if we agree that the dominant societal ideology isn’t a singular mass concept inflicted upon us, but more the result of the hundreds of millions of tiny individual decisions that we all take day in day out, then we must accept that we are in some ways at least, in control of how we emerge from the crisis. That the actions we take now and in the weeks and months to come, can strengthen our relative position once the restrictions are lifted and free movement resumes.
As I watch the news, listen to friends, family and clients describing their experiences, their plans for their businesses, their changing opinions and thoughts about the new world order, I can’t help reflect on a few key themes that might play a role in sculpting the shape of things to come… This is not an exhaustive list, and just to be completely transparent, I have no more insight, foresight or certainty than anybody else, I’m simply sharing some thoughts that might provoke discussion, consideration or dissent… How you view it is, just like how you respond to the crisis or anything else for that matter, totally up to you…
1 – Physical distance is increasing. As we observe the 2m safety advice we are standing further apart as we converse, queue or simply pass on the street, this for some is leading to nuanced choices about how we will commute to work in the future (that packed commuter train suddenly has different connotations), where we socialise (packed bars and heaving clubs could soon feel as out of place and archaic as the cigarette smoke filled pubs of our youth), how far we travel for holidays (air travel anyone?) or even how we shop for our weekly groceries…
And what about going to a festival, huge sporting events, or even spending a Saturday afternoon shopping at the mall? Now, I’m not for one minute suggesting these changes will be total, dramatic and permanent, but they will undoubtedly be nuanced in some way, for a while at least…
2 – Emotional distancing. Long before anyone had heard the word ‘Coronavirus’, we have to some extent seen increased distancing around the world with people retreating to likeminded camps of shared ideology, national identity, faith or politics. Think Brexit, Trump, Border Controls and immigration. In times of uncertainty, fear and confusion, its natural to retreat to a safe and familiar space, with people who look like, think like and act like you. But in doing so we need to recognise that we are also widening gaps in society, and we need to be mindful of the convergent impact on our thinking, our culture and our acceptance of others.
As we emerge from our period of isolation, and think about life after Covid, how open will we be to foreign travel? How many people will be holidaying abroad, versus the Great British coastline with the services of the NHS within easy reach? What about welcoming travellers and tourists to our shores? Not to mention the economic impact for those financially hit by the virus? Will the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ be even wider apart in a post Covid world?
As someone who loves to travel, relishes new experiences and welcomes the opportunity to learn about new cultures, taste new foods, and meet new people, I sincerely hope we continue to travel freely, unencumbered by the fear of germs and viruses, or mistrust of people from different lands. That said, there is a growing list of places I would have thought carefully about visiting last year for political reasons, and now this year and likely in the near term, for hygiene / potential contamination and access to healthcare reasons….
3 – A greater sense of community. Within communities we are seeing some wonderful examples of altruism, kind heartedness and loving thy neighbour. Just consider the 750,000 strong NHS volunteer army, support for the frontline workers with our Thursday night ‘clap for the carers’ which is gaining traction and volume week after week, and the simply stellar Captain Tom Moore raising more than £25M (at time of writing) by walking 100 lengths of his garden by his 100th birthday later this month. These are just some of the more widely publicised examples, but I am certain we all know many more local, closer to home examples of heart-warming and uplifting community camaraderie. It may be that I’m seeing things from my small town in north Bucks and so have a blinkered view, but it’s a far cry from the ‘eyes down’, ’mind your own business’ that I witnessed on the London underground just a few months ago… There is a great sense that we are in this together, how long lived that philosophy will be remains to be seen, especially after lockdown restrictions are lifted. It would be nice to think more of this will remain, than perhaps existed before Covid. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not bemoaning a lack of community spirit pre C-19, I am a firm believer that most people are inherently good and kind, moreover the pace of modern life for many was such that taking time to run errands for someone else was just too much to fit into an already busy schedule…
4 – Prioritising family time. When the schools closed, there was widespread panic among the parents WhatsApp groups at my kids school, but within days the feed was filled with parents admitting they were really glad not to be rushing out of the house every morning, to not have to shout at the kids to get their shoes on and pick up their PE kits, to not have to worry about being late for work as you speed to the school gates and away again as quickly as you can.
Lockdown has bought many challenges but it has also allowed busy parents to slowdown, to spend quality time with their children, to eat together, to create memories, to camp out in the back garden or just to share day to day experiences of cooking together, reading together or painting rainbows to display in your window. It’s not that parents didn’t want to do this before, but that some family time had been sacrificed in order to make everything else work. Now, working from home (so less time commuting) has been proven to not only be possible, but for many (at least partially) preferable, will we be as willing to return to the stresses, pace and chaos of life as it was?
5 – Adaptability, agility, and resilience will doubtless feature highly in the list of buzzwords for 2020. It’s hard to think of a business that hasn’t had to rethink, reshape and adapt to the current situation, in some form or another, but it’s not just business that are having to adapt. We are all adapting to a new set of circumstances and figuring it out one day at a time. Those who were the quickest to respond, both businesses and individuals alike, are those with inbuilt adaptability and resilience at their core. Resilience is more than a character trait, its how you designed the business or lived your life. For business, resilience and agility are usually correlated with sound management, cash reserves and the ability to throw money at something to support fast action. That may be a key take-away from this, with businesses and indeed families, prioritising saving for a rainy day. In business, alongside focussing on cash we will be looking at operating models, location strategies, workspace layouts and increased automation, especially in production, warehousing and manual tasks that have been severely impacted by the physical distancing need for 2m space between co-workers. Doubtless, households will be adapting their own ‘modus operandi’ too – historically living like old Mrs Hubbard with daily trips to Waitrose or Sainsburys local, I’m now planning to keep a tin or two on hand, just in case.
6 – There’s opportunity in everything. Whatever the shape of things to come, if we look for opportunity, we are sure to find it. I have had conversations this week about how the long awaited and technologically enabled virtual workplace (Work From Home) will open up far more in a post Covid world than existed before the crisis – this not only means less commuting for those already in jobs, but it also opens opportunities up for mothers of school age children, single parents, those with disabilities or geographic restrictions for another reason. Aside from the economic and social impact of facilitating online working, the business benefits from divergent thinking, new approaches and different perspectives learned from non-workplace experiences is potentially significant.
Whatever things look like, this period of forced slowdown, allows the opportunity to change, adapt, tweak or radically rethink what, how quickly and where we will rebuild. Let’s make sure we use this time to think before we act, that way we can build something satisfying, sustainable and successful.
7 – Taxes are going up. With financial support on a scale never before seen in the UK, it doesn’t take a genius to work out it all has to be paid for somehow. Quite how, when and how much won’t be known for quite some time, but sure as eggs the borrowing will need to be re-paid, and poor Rishi Sunak will inevitably go from a new and very popular Chancellor to the bearer of bad news for many….
To conclude…
“When things get back to normal” is probably amongst the most used phrase in the English language right now. The extent to which things do get back to how they were even a few months hence, is a much-discussed topic, with both extremes and everything in the middle being aired as the most likely outcome. Whatever happens when the restrictions are lifted, I hope we find a way to combine the best of what was before, with the positives we are seeing now (altruism, family time, community spirit, gratitude for core workers, funding for the NHS, adaptability, connectivity, reduced pollution, daily exercise, etc), to create a better future for us all.
Can a new normal be better than what came before? In some respects yes it can, in others however potentially not - how we experience it will depend on how we perceive it (optimism /pessimism, adaptability/rigidity) - it is ultimately undeniable that things will continue to be different for some time to come. How we choose to deal with that, individually and collectively, is up to all of us. We are all, as they say, in it together!